Rising construction financing costs, higher energy prices and the uncertainty of economic development have clouded the forecast for the European window market over the winter of 2022.
Overall, the sales volume of the window market in Western Europe will decline by 5.3% in 2023. In 2022, sales could still increase by 2.8%, according to a new study by Interconnection Consulting, the results of which will be presented at the Vienna Window Congress (22-23 June 2023).
Above all, window sales in the new construction sector will be affected by rising construction financing costs. Residential construction projects are being postponed or even cancelled. A sustained upswing in the window market in Western Europe is not expected until 2025. The renovation segment, on the other hand, will not fall as sharply as the new construction segment and also has strong potential in the long term. Not least because the EU Commission proposes that the energy efficiency of every residential building in the EU should reach at least class D by 2033. Already in the previous year, the renovation sector performed better than the overall market with an increase of 3.7%. In the meantime, two out of three windows are sold in the renovation sector.
Southern Europe is the Growth Champion
In 2022, government subsidies led to an extreme increase in window sales in the renovation segment, especially in Southern Europe. Sales in Southern Europe (Italy, Spain, Portugal) increased by around 8%. In Italy alone, growth was 13.4% last year. However, the new regulations in the “super bonus” will lead to a decline in demand in the window market, explains Laszlo Barla, the author of the study. Market participants and experts fear a decline in Italy of up to 10%. Interconnection also assumes a significant decline in the Italian window market, but from a high level, as Barla points out. Overall, the Southern Europe region will shrink by less than 5% next year, less than the Western European average, which is also due to the high renovation rate of almost 80%.
Weak Refurbishment Sector in Austria and Switzerland
The decline in the DACH region (Germany, Austria, Switzerland) will amount to 5%. In Austria, in contrast to all other countries in Western Europe, refurbishment was on the decline in 2022. More was invested in photovoltaics and heating system replacement than in the building envelope (window replacement). In addition to stagnating building completions, this led to a slight minus of around 3% in window sales. For 2023, Interconnection expects a decline of 15% in building completions. In Switzerland, window sales stagnated last year.
Despite lower inflation, residential construction will also decline in Switzerland, leading to a drop in window sales in the new construction sector. The renovation sector will also decline by about 1% and thus will not be able to compensate for the downturn in the residential construction sector. The decline in window sales is strongest in the UK & Ireland region with around 7%. Overall, the Northern Europe region (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland) is holding up best, losing only about 4.5% in market volume in 2023.
High Growth for PVC Windows in Southern Europe
Overall, 70% of window units are sold in residential construction. PVC windows make up the largest share with 43.9%. Especially in Southern Europe, multi-storey residential construction and thermal renovation have favoured the spread of PVC windows. For example, the growth rate for PVC windows in Italy was 16.4% and in Spain 6.3% in 2022. Overall, the share of PVC windows in Southern Europe is 38%.
In the UK & Ireland, DACH and France & Benelux regions, the PVC share is even around 50%. Metal windows have a total share of 26.4% and wooden windows 14.7%. In the DACH region and in the Nordic countries, four out of five windows sold are triple-glazed. In the other regions surveyed (Southern Europe, Great Britain & Ireland, and France & Benelux) double glazing dominates. In France & Benelux the share of double glazing is around 90%.
» More information on the Vienna Window Congress (22-23 June 2023)
source: interconnectionconsulting.com
